Fewer Claims, Bigger Files: The 2026 Adjuster Job Market and How IAs Can Stay Busy
If 2026 has felt slow, the data agrees with you. Claim assignments are down, the hurricane season produced one US landfall, and Crawford, the largest publicly traded IA firm, reported reduced catastrophe staffing. Yet State Farm announced on September 25, 2026 that it plans to add about 3,000 net new claims jobs in 2027, and one catastrophe firm executive says carriers are asking for more desk adjusters per event than they used to.
Both things are true. The 2026 adjuster job market has fewer claims, larger and more complex files, fewer entry-level openings and a retirement wave building in the background. Here's what the numbers show as of October 29, 2026, and how independent adjusters can stay busy in a quiet year.
The headline numbers
| Data point | Figure | Source (date) |
|---|---|---|
| US claim assignments, Q2 2026 | Down 12.2% year over year; 13.1% below the five-year average | Verisk Quarterly Property Report (reported Sept. 2026) |
| Non-cat assignments | 18.65% below the five-year average | Verisk |
| Cat share of claim volume | 43%, up from 34% five years earlier | Verisk |
| Crawford US P&C revenue, Q2 | $74.1M, down 10.2% | Insurance Business (Aug. 4) |
| State Farm claims hiring, 2027 | About 3,000 net new jobs; about 5,500 gross hires | State Farm newsroom (Sept. 25) |
| Adjuster job postings | Down 55% from the post-pandemic peak | Glassdoor analysis via Claims Journal (Aug. 27) |
| Entry-level adjuster postings | Down nearly 50% since early 2024 | Glassdoor analysis via Claims Journal |
| Expected retirements | About a quarter of claim adjusters by end of 2027 | Sedgwick, via Claims Journal (Oct. 2) |
Fewer claims: what's driving the slowdown
Assignment volume is in a multi-year decline
Verisk's Q2 2026 data, summarized by Artemis, shows US property claim assignments down 12.21% from a year earlier and 13.05% below the five-year average, extending a four-year decline. Daily (non-cat) claims fell hardest, down 18.65% against the five-year average. Cat claims held up better, so they now make up 43% of a smaller total.
For IAs who rely on daily claims between storms, that non-cat number is the one that hurts.
A quiet hurricane year
NOAA's August outlook gave a 75% chance of a below-normal Atlantic season, citing a strong and strengthening El Niño. The season's first hurricane, Isaias, didn't make landfall until October 9, and it turned into a short, deductible-heavy deployment. We covered the claim data in Hurricane Isaias by the numbers.
Gallagher Re reported global insured cat losses of $92 billion through September, the lowest for that period since 2019.
The IA firms feel it
Crawford & Co. reported Q2 US Property & Casualty revenue of $74.1 million, down 10.2%, citing lower weather-related claims, reduced catastrophe services staffing and fewer Contractor Connection referrals, according to Insurance Business. That is about as direct a public signal of a soft US IA cat market as you will find. Crawford's Q3 results, likely due in early November, should show whether Isaias helped.
Bigger files: severity is heading up
Fewer claims doesn't mean less money per claim. Verisk reported Q2 average severity of $17,085 as first recorded. That is below last year's matured figure, but early numbers always grow as files close. Q1 2026 severity, for example, matured 13.1%, from $16,079 to $18,185. Verisk projects Q2 will reach about $18,794, or above $19,400 if it follows Q1's pattern. Both are projections. Combined labor and materials costs were up 4% year over year.
Verisk's roof data points the same way. Its May 2026 roof report put the average residential roof replacement at $17,631 in 2025, 33% above the 2021–24 average.
Larger, more complex files reward adjusters who can scope accurately and support every line. They also draw more desk review, supplement requests and appraisal. Speed matters, but defensibility matters more.
State Farm's 3,000 hires: what it means for IAs
On September 25, 2026, State Farm announced it plans to grow its claims workforce by about 10% in 2027, roughly 3,000 net new employees and about 5,500 gross hires after attrition, on top of about 30,000 claims staff today. It handles nearly 11 million claims a year. The reasons it gave were company growth, more complex claims (including new vehicle technology and repair methods), more severe weather and a "Human + Digital" model that pairs technology with employee judgment.
The release doesn't mention independent adjusters. Our read, and it is only a read: the largest US homeowners writer building in-house capacity could mean fewer daily-claim and overflow assignments to IAs over time. Carriers still need surge capacity for big catastrophes, and no in-house staff is sized for a Michael or an Ian. Treat this as a direction to watch, not a confirmed cut. We wrote about the earlier stages of this shift in The End of an Era.
For newer adjusters, the flip side matters: 5,500 gross hires is a lot of staff adjuster openings. A staff role can be a reasonable way to build experience in a slow cat market.
Entry-level vs. senior: two different markets
A Glassdoor analysis reported by Claims Journal on August 27 found adjuster job postings down 55% from their post-pandemic peak, compared with 36% for the broader labor market. Entry-level adjuster postings fell nearly 50% since early 2024, against 15% for all jobs. Demand for senior adjusters rose. This is a single analysis, so treat it as a signal, not a census.
The supply side is moving the other way. Sedgwick's 2026 Loss Adjusting Insights report, as covered by Claims Journal on October 2, expects about a quarter of claim adjusters to retire by the end of 2027. A Sedgwick executive separately warned that up to 40% of the catastrophe claims resources available in 2024 may not be deployable by 2027.
Put together: fewer seats for beginners now, a thinning bench of experienced adjusters and a likely squeeze when the next big storm year arrives. Two quiet hurricane years also mean many newer IAs have little storm experience on their resume.
The bright spot: desk adjusting
On October 9, Insurance Business reported comments from Mid-America Catastrophe Services' senior VP of sales, who said carrier requests for desk adjusters per major catastrophe have grown from about 25–50 to 100–200. He also said three carriers in the prior 30 days told him they wanted to avoid field roof inspections, preferring drones or other methods. These are one executive's observations, not industry data, but they match a broader shift toward desk review and remote inspection.
Desk work is less weather-dependent than field cat work and relies heavily on Xactimate speed and accuracy. If you've only worked the field, it's a skill worth adding.
How to stay busy in a quiet year
- Widen your rosters. Deployments go to adjusters a firm already knows. Update your profile with each firm you're on and add a few new ones before spring hail season. Our IA Firm List covers 86 firms.
- Pursue desk work. Let firms know you're open to desk assignments, and be ready to show Xactimate competence. Desk reviewers who write clean, consistent estimates get called back.
- Follow the hail and wind. Severe convective storms remain the steady base of residential claims. Gallagher Re reported at least $43 billion in US SCS insured losses through Q3. Make sure you're licensed where the hail belt requires it (Texas, Oklahoma and neighboring states). Licensing rules vary, and some states in the region don't license independent adjusters at all, so check each one.
- Look at staff and TPA roles. With State Farm and others hiring in-house, a staff role can carry you through a soft cat market and build file experience.
- Get faster at complex files. Bigger severity means more line items, more supplements and more scrutiny. Build or refine your templates so your estimates are consistent. Our Xactimate macros and templates can shorten that work if you'd rather not build everything yourself. Our guide to macros and templates explains how they fit into a workflow.
- Use the downtime. Renew licenses, finish CE early and practice in Xactimate. A slow fall is the cheapest time to get ready for a busy spring.
- Tighten your documentation. Closing reasons and denial support are under new scrutiny. Adjusters known for clean files are easier to keep on a roster. See our piece on closed-without-payment scrutiny.
What to watch next
- Verisk's Q3 property report will show whether the assignment decline continued through summer.
- Crawford's Q3 results (likely early November) will show Isaias's effect on IA firm volume.
- Winter work. NOAA's winter outlook for a strong El Niño favors a wetter South and East Coast, which could mean more water, flood and wind claims in the Gulf and Southeast this winter.
- 2027 staffing announcements from other large carriers, which would show whether State Farm's in-house push is a trend.
Figures are as of October 29, 2026. Pay and day rates aren't covered here because no reliable 2026 data has been published.