Hurricane Isaias by the Numbers: What the Season's Only US Landfall Meant for Adjusters
Hurricane Isaias came ashore near Destin, Florida, at about 8:30 p.m. CDT on October 9, 2026, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph sustained winds. It was the first US hurricane landfall since 2024, and the first Atlantic hurricane of a season so quiet that adjusters had mostly stopped checking the tropics.
Three weeks later, the numbers tell a clear story. Isaias produced a real deployment, but a short one. A large share of files closed without a check, deductibles did a lot of the work, and the worst damage landed west of where everyone was looking. Here is what the data shows as of October 29, 2026, and what it means for the adjusters still working the files.
The storm in brief
- Intensity: Isaias peaked at Category 3 (120 mph) offshore, then weakened under wind shear before landfall. Verisk lists landfall at Category 2, 105 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 971 mb.
- Where the wind went: The strongest recorded gust, 117 mph, hit the Pensacola area on the west side of the eye, according to Insurance Journal. Milton, northeast of Pensacola, saw gusts up to 110 mph. Weather reports suggested rare "sting jet" winds may have played a role.
- Surge: Modest. Gallagher Re reported about 5.6 feet at Panama City Beach.
- Tornadoes and trees: At least 21 tornadoes were confirmed across the Southeast. Falling trees knocked out power to more than 670,000 customers across Florida, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi.
The west-side wind pattern matters for anyone reading a loss run. Okaloosa County, where the eye came ashore, produced far fewer claims than Santa Rosa and Escambia to the west.
Claim counts: two snapshots, read with their dates
The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) collects claim data from carriers and has released two snapshots so far. They were taken at different times, so the county numbers don't line up perfectly. Cite each one with its date.
| Measure | Snapshot 1 (about Oct. 15, reported Oct. 19) | Snapshot 2 (as of about Oct. 25, reported Oct. 25–26) |
|---|---|---|
| Total claims | About 47,000 | About 55,000 (about 47,000 residential) |
| Estimated insured losses | $582 million | About $582 million |
| Santa Rosa County | 22,894 | More than 26,000 |
| Escambia County | About 13,700 | Nearly 17,000 |
| Okaloosa County | About 6,061 (with Walton) | About 5,200 |
| Closed with payment | Not broken out | Just over 3,500 |
| Closed without payment | Nearly all of the ~12% closed | Nearly 8,500 |
| Open, partially paid | Not broken out | 1,454 |
Sources: Claims Journal, Oct. 19; Tallahassee Reports and Beinsure, Oct. 25–26, both citing OIR.
For a benchmark, Hurricane Sally hit nearly the same stretch of coast in 2020 as a Category 2 and produced about 72,000 claims and $577 million in losses within six weeks. Isaias is on a similar loss track with fewer claims, at least so far.
Why so many files closed without payment
As of the late-October snapshot, files closed without payment outnumbered files closed with payment by more than two to one. That ratio will shift as larger files close, but the early pattern has clear causes.
Deductibles did the heavy lifting
Florida hurricane deductibles are usually a percentage of the dwelling limit, and Isaias produced a lot of moderate damage that fell under them. One broker told Insurance Journal that much of what his team saw was below the deductible.
Tree claims that weren't house claims
Many early filings were for downed trees. According to Claims Journal's reporting on the OIR data, a lot of those were later withdrawn because the tree never hit the house, the policy didn't cover tree removal, or the loss fell under the deductible.
A new closing code: "administrative reasons"
The most common no-payment reason in OIR's first report was a category added this year, "administrative reasons." It can include claims withdrawn by the insured, duplicate claims, and insureds the carrier could not reach. Below-deductible losses and excluded flood damage were the other main reasons.
That new category is worth paying attention to. "Closed without payment" figures are drawing attention from regulators and Congress right now, and a single bucket that lumps "insured withdrew" together with "we couldn't reach them" invites questions. How you document the reason a file closed is becoming a number someone else will read.
The loss estimates, and why they differ
Modelers published estimates ranging from $1 billion to $4.5 billion. They aren't contradicting each other so much as measuring different things.
| Modeler (date) | Estimate | What's in it |
|---|---|---|
| Cotality (Oct. 12) | $2B–$3B | Wind and surge |
| Verisk (Oct. 13) | $1B–$2B | Onshore property, wind and private surge. Excludes NFIP, tornadoes, LAE and litigation |
| Karen Clark & Co. (Oct. 15) | About $3B | Privately insured wind and surge. Excludes NFIP |
| Moody's RMS (Oct. 16) | $2.5B–$4.5B (best estimate $3.5B) | Includes about $250M from surge, inland flood and NFIP |
| Gallagher Re (Oct. 21) | Low-to-mid single-digit billions | Includes inland flood, tornado and expected NFIP |
The OIR figure ($582 million) covers Florida claims reported so far. The modeled numbers cover the whole event across several states and include losses not yet reported. Verisk's release spells out its exclusions, which is a useful reminder of how much a "headline loss" depends on what gets counted.
AM Best called Isaias an "earnings event" rather than a capital event for carriers, and Gallagher Re said it should not move most carriers' reinsurance renewals.
What happened on the ground
Carriers first set up a claims village in Destin the Monday after landfall. Few policyholders showed up, so by that afternoon they had moved to the University of West Florida campus in Pensacola, where 14 carriers set up mobile claims stations alongside Florida Department of Financial Services staff. Even there, Insurance Journal reported, few people stopped by.
Early carrier counts reported that week:
- Universal P&C: about 3,000 claims on about 20,000 regional policies
- People's Trust: just over 400 claims on about 8,000 policies
- Security First: about 300 claims on about 15,000 Panhandle policies, about five of them severe
- Citizens: about 8,800 Panhandle policies at landfall and 860 claims as of Oct. 15
The Citizens number stands out. Citizens has long been a major source of Florida cat assignments, and its book has shrunk dramatically since 2023. Fewer Citizens files per storm means more of the work flows through private carriers and their own vendor panels.
Aerial imagery firm Vexcel counted about 17,860 damaged structures across Florida, Alabama and Mississippi, with 3,141 showing major damage and 631 destroyed. Those severe losses, along with commercial and multifamily damage in Santa Rosa County (including a Milton apartment complex that had a large section of its roof lifted off), are where the long-tail work sits.
What it means for adjusters working Isaias files
If you deployed, or you're picking up desk or reinspection work now, a few practical points:
- Write the closing reason like someone will audit it. "Below deductible" should show the deductible, the covered estimate and the math. "Withdrawn" should say who withdrew it, when and how. "No contact" should list every attempt with dates and methods. A vague administrative close is the easiest kind to second-guess.
- Separate the tree from the house. Photograph and note whether the tree struck a covered structure, what it damaged and what the policy says about debris and tree removal. That one paragraph prevents a lot of reopened files.
- Document wind direction and location. With peak gusts on the west side, damage patterns in Pensacola, Milton and Santa Rosa County may not match what a reviewer expects from the landfall point. Note your observations clearly.
- Expect supplements and reinspections. Large commercial and multifamily losses close slowly. If you're on those files, clean line-item support makes the back-and-forth easier. Consistent macros help here; our Xactimate macros and templates are built for exactly that kind of repeatable scope.
- Keep surge and flood out of the wind file, with notes. Surge was modest, but flood remains excluded under the homeowners form. Note the water source and height where it matters.
The bigger picture: a thin season
Isaias arrived in the middle of a very quiet year. NOAA's August outlook gave a 75% chance of a below-normal Atlantic season, citing a strong and strengthening El Niño. Gallagher Re reported global insured cat losses of $92 billion for the first nine months of 2026, the lowest since 2019, and that figure doesn't include Isaias.
For independent adjusters, that means fewer big deployments and more competition for the ones that happen. Severe convective storms (hail and wind) remain the steady base of residential work. If Isaias was your only hurricane call this year, it's a good time to tighten up your roster list for 2027. Our IA Firm List covers 86 firms if you're looking to add a few.
For background on how carrier shifts are changing IA work more broadly, see our earlier piece on State Farm's shift and the independent adjuster industry.
What to watch next
- Updated OIR claim data. OIR will keep publishing. Watch the closed-with-payment share as larger files resolve.
- Federal aid. Gov. DeSantis requested a major disaster declaration seeking about $237 million in federal aid. FEMA approved an emergency declaration for three Alabama counties before landfall.
- Crawford's Q3 results, likely due in early November, may show how much Isaias helped IA firm volume in a slow year.
- Scrutiny of "closed without payment." Congressional and regulatory attention to unpaid closures is growing. Isaias's numbers will likely show up in that conversation.
Figures in this article are current as of October 29, 2026 (the latest OIR snapshot was reported Oct. 25–26), and will change as carriers report more claims to the Florida OIR.